my analysis of the effectiveness of covid measures (1 Viewer)

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Bert

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Jan 10, 2019
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Belgium
I made a linkedin article (in Dutch) about the covid measures based upon my experience with working with algae and bacteria.
In this analysis I don't discuss side effects of the vaccines because this distracts from the fact that even in the best case the current measures are counter effective.

I just put it through google translate and edited it a bit to be able to share it here.
It is a larger article but I got feedback from others they found it very worthfull as it give you insight in the situation.

The Corona measures: effective or counterproductive

Disturbing finding


Both the coronavirus and the measures have a very big impact on us, our loved ones, the economy,...

The current approach seemed so unorganized to me that after a year and a half I decided to apply my experience with micro-organisms to the set of measures that our politicians and experts impose on us. I came to the conclusion that these are counterproductive. In fact, I concluded that this set of measures will ensure an ever-lasting pandemic/state of emergency.

However, don't take my word for it. Below you can find my analysis and the reasons why I came to this conclusion and also how we could get out of this situation. Based on that, you can decide for yourself whether this analysis is correct.

What drives micro-organisms

Microorganisms only want one thing and that is to be SUCCESSFUL. To be successful for these organisms is to be able to reproduce well. In the case of algae and bacteria, this results in as much biomass as possible. With a virus, this means being active in as many host organisms (humans) as possible.

My experience is that the micro-organisms always ADAPT to the conditions to which the micro-organisms are exposed. The environment determines which variants, strains are successful.

An example of this that has been well documented is the build-up of resistance of bacteria to antibiotics

In the beginning, antibiotics will work well, but there will always be a few bacteria that survive in places where there are fewer antibiotics or that survived because the person stopped taking the antibiotics prematurely.

These bacteria will adapt and be able to withstand ever higher concentrations of antibiotics and they will eventually be able to live well with high antibiotic concentrations and thus become antibiotic resistant.

However, this resistance comes with the price that these bacteria must invest energy here and will multiply less quickly than non-resistant bacteria.

As a result, the moment the antibiotic pressure drops, the non-resistant bacteria will have an advantage (faster multiplication) and the resistant bacteria will be pushed into the background.

This is also the reason why good antibiotic use is so important: "Only when necessary and always take the entire box"





Adaptability of microorganisms


Another important parameter for estimating how microorganisms respond to external pressures and changes is the adaptability of organisms:

STABLE ORGANISMS: These are variants (strains) that have been highly isolated in the lab for a particular trait or have lived in a particular niche for a long time. These organisms are not very flexible to changes. Major changes to the environment will prevent the organisms from multiplying. Although these organisms are stable, we also see in reality that you ALWAYS get new variants after a longer period of time (due to mutations/mistakes during cell division). If these mutations grow faster than the original strain, it becomes the dominant strain. However, these adaptations are SLOW.

ADAPTIVE ORGANISMS: usually this is a group with a higher genetic diversity (you have many variants) and/or an organism makes many variants (much mutations). These organisms are very successful because they simply adapt to the circumstances. An example of this is a mix of antibiotics and non-antibiotic resistant variants of a bacterium. Add antibiotics to this mix and after a small decline in bacterial growth you are back to the original situation of bacterial growth. These adjustments are FAST.

What does all this have to do with the covid measures, you wonder? At the start of the covid pandemic, it has been communicated that covid-19 is a stable virus that makes very few variants. In the following paragraphs I discuss the measures and their effects on the virus in case the virus is stable as well as adaptive. Then you can clearly see the effects of this difference in the short and long term.

1. Fewer contacts and disinfecting hands

This measure ensures fewer infections in the short term because there is less exchange. In the long term, the effect is less clear and positive:

stable viruses: with stable viruses there is a reduction in transmission and therefore an improvement in the situation, both in the short and long term.

adaptive viruses: because viral material is more difficult to pass on, especially the most contagious variants with a lot of viral material will be successful. In the short term this helps, but in the longer term there will be a shift to more contagious variants.

our own immune system needs exercise (you can't run a marathon by sitting on the couch either). If we maintain this regime for a long time, we will become ill from simple viruses that we would not have noticed otherwise. This has also been agreed by our experts, who expect a heavy flu season because we have had few contacts for a year and a half.

2. Stay at home when you are sick

This measure ensures that people that have a strain that has a high chance of making someone seriously ill, stay at home, so that they are passed on less. This measure is positive in both the short and long term:

stable viruses: if the virus is highly pathogenic, this measure slows down the spread and the virus will be less present.

adaptive viruses: the measure ensures that the strongly pathogenic variants spread less quickly and that variants that usually cause a cold or cause very limited disease symptoms are passed on. Of course, there is a difference between reactions of different people to one particular variant, but you are guaranteed to get a shift to milder variants.

3. Extensive testing and contact tracing

This measure is good if you are dealing with very deadly diseases and at the start of an epidemic so that you can control the spread. COVID-19 is now widely spread and can no longer be "conquered". We must learn to live with it. This measure puts a general pressure on the spread of the virus. In the effects below I assume that the test method is reliable and therefore represents the optimal case.

stable viruses: with stable viruses there is a reduction in transmission and thus an improvement in the situation.

adaptive viruses: because viral material is more difficult to pass on, especially the most contagious variants with a lot of viral material will be successful. So we're going to see a shift to more contagious variants. Because no distinction is made here between variants that make someone seriously ill or only cause a cold, you will not have the natural evolution of a virus to milder variants. You will have the most contagious, regardless of whether this is a mild or heavy variant. What emerges is unpredictable. A bit like playing Russian roulette but with a virus.

4. Vaccination

When vaccinated, you ideally ensure that the virus no longer gets into a person. We must distinguish here between vaccines that are 100% efficient and vaccines that are less than 100% efficient.

With 100% efficient vaccines, it's simple. It will always be beneficial. The problem is, these vaccines don't exist.

Vaccines with an efficiency of less than 100%:

stable viruses: here you will see a reduction in transmission even if the efficiency is not 100%. So you get a good effect with these viruses.

adaptive viruses: Here you enter a completely different situation where we have to distinguish between vaccinating everyone or just the vulnerable. If everyone is vaccinated, the vaccine will keep the variants for which it is effective well under control, so that there is room for the variants that are not stopped by the vaccine. These variants can be both mild and serious. So you don't know in which direction the vaccine will send the pandemic. If you only vaccinate the vulnerable, you will protect them. Because the rest is not vaccinated, the evolution of the virus will be slower, so that these vulnerable people can enjoy the protection of the vaccine for longer.

5. Covid passes

A covid pass will mainly give people who have been vaccinated mobility. You give the healed persons temporary mobility for the period that they are certainly well protected. The other individuals should be tested and will not have transmission if the test is effective. We assess this situation from the perspective that the vaccines are not 100% efficient.

stable viruses: with stable viruses there is a reduction in transmission and thus an improvement in the situation.

adaptive viruses: as discussed with the vaccines, you will get an evolution of the viruses. Because you give the vaccinated freedom, you will speed up the reduction of the effectiveness of the vaccine because the variants, for which the vaccine is not very efficient, circulate much more easily. The unvaccinated have been tested or have immunity and will not spread the virus.

6. 2G, 1G

This measure is not yet in force in Belgium, but we are seeing it in the surrounding countries. It is a tightening of the CST towards vaccinated or cured. You indirectly force the unvaccinated and cured people (after their 6 months) to get vaccinated.

stable viruses: with stable viruses there is a reduction in transmission and therefore an improvement in the situation due to the higher vaccination coverage.

adaptive viruses: as discussed with the vaccines, you will get an evolution of the viruses. Because more people are vaccinated, you increase the pressure on the virus to adapt. Because you also give the vaccinated freedom, you will also reduce the effectiveness of the vaccine more quickly because the variants, for which the vaccine is not very efficient, circulate much more easily.

Are the measures effective or counterproductive?

At the start of the corona epidemic, we were reminded that the virus was a stable virus and that vaccines could therefore be developed against it. As you can see above, all the above measures are good if you have a stable virus. Based on the principles of our experts at the start of the epidemic, the measures are therefore correct.

However, after one and a half to two years, we see that the virus has mutated into a variant that is much more contagious. In addition, we see that the vaccines lose efficiency quickly after the worldwide introduction of the covid certificates. This indicates that corona is in reality an adaptive virus that changes much more than originally believed.

If we look at the set of measures that has now been imposed (1. disinfecting, 2. staying at home if sick, 3. testing and contact tracing, 4. vaccination of as many people as possible, 5. CST) from the point of view that it is an adaptive virus, we see that this has the following consequences:

the virus moves to a higher contagiousness (what we observe)

there can be no natural evolution to a milder variant because all variants are suppressed. You have an unpredictable evolution of the virus. (what we observe)

the vaccines ensure a faster evolution of the virus so that protection for the vulnerable decreases rapidly. Here too there is an unpredictable evolution of the virus. (what we observe)

Covid pass ensures rapid transmission of variants for which the vaccine does not work properly, so that the vaccines quickly become less efficient and therefore the weaker are no longer well protected. (which we observe because the booster vaccines have been started for the weaker ones)

Based on this, you see that the current measures do not help us to get to a situation where we can live with the virus. The measures only make the virus more contagious and unpredictable. Moreover, you can only develop a new vaccine if the new variant is known. So you will have a recurring phenomenon here of vaccination, temporarily better, new variant, lockdown, new dominant variant, developing a new vaccine, new vaccination, temporarily better... an ever-lasting pandemic .

What must be done then? Based on the above analysis, I see the following approach as an opportunity to get out of the pandemic:

limit contacts only for short periods so that the hospitals are not overloaded. This keeps our immune system trained and we can still avoid overloading the hospitals.

stay home if you are sick . This ensures a natural evolution of the virus into a cold.

stop testing and contact tracing people who don't show symptoms. Maintaining this system hinders a natural evolution towards a milder virus.

reserve the vaccines for the vulnerable so that they are effectively protected until the virus has weakened in severity to a cold.

Stop the Covid pass (and don't enter 2G, 1G). This system only helps to spread the vaccine resistant variants more efficiently and is also very discriminatory.

In addition, I would also like to argue for a strengthening of the capacity of hospitals and for preventive health instructions that strengthen our immune system, such as healthy nutrition, vitamin D, exercise, laughter,... You hear very little about this from our government and experts.



Finally, I have a request for comments on this article. Everyone wants to get out of this pandemic, nobody wants to get sick, lose loved ones,... So keep it polite and discuss the substantive measures where there are no recriminations about vaxxers and antivaxxers that help no one.
 

Linda

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Jul 20, 2016
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Wow, Bert! You explained something complicated very well and made it easy to understand. There has been limited public discussion on the difference of stable and adaptive viruses and that covid shows all the hallmarks of being adaptive. Your explanation needs a wider audience. Thanks for for putting together such an excellent explanation.
 

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